21 OCT 2024

Budget Watch: Pre Budget Briefing from the HFI

BUDGET WATCH – Pre Budget Brief on Housing Delivery

The Housing & Finance Institute has produced a Pre Budget Briefing on what to look out for in the upcoming Autumn Budget when it comes to housing and housing delivery.

This is an important Autumn Budget in setting out the new Government's priorities. The HFI's Pre-Budget Brief includes commentary on the likely scope of the Budget and six key areas to watch for:

(1) A long term rent settlement for social housing

(2) Extra funding for temporary housing and council budgets as well as steps to tackle the Local Housing Allowance Gap 

(3) Funding for the Affordable Housing Programme

(4) Support for green finance, estate improvement, safety and environmental programmes

(5) Home ownership: Reform of Right to Buy and Mortgage Support Schemes

(6) Skills and apprenticeships (including planners).

In addition to the delivery of new homes, the government and industry have a number of legacy housing costs and issues to resolve including legal and regulatory matters around building safety, fire safety, housing health (mould and damp), environmental protections, net zero and water pollution. These are serious issues that will require significant amounts of public and private finance commitments in the next few years.

This first Budget will be a strong indication of the priority placed on the issues affecting housing and housing delivery and how the target of 1.5 million homes this Parliament will be met.

The Autumn Budget 2024 will be held on 30 October 2024 at around 12:30pm. 

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Housing Delivery Snapshot - August 2024 

• The Bank of England cut interest rates to 5% in a move expected to begin to boost confidence. The close 5-4 vote of the MPC came with a cautionary message that the Bank was not going to cut “too quickly or by too much”.

• Mortgage lender Nationwide released its latest UK house price index report, with an annual growth in house prices of 2.1% in July, its fastest pace since December 2022.

• The latest NHBC housing pipeline figures for Quarter 2 2024 show the scale of the current housebuilding slump with a 23% fall in new registrations compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

• Latest MHCLG data reported a significant fall in residential Planning Permissions over 30%, another key housing pipeline indicator.

• Following the General Election, the new Government confirmed its 1.5 million new homes target for this Parliament.

• The Housing Secretary took immediate action to impose compulsory housebuilding targets on councils, with a warning of direct intervention if housing targets are not met.

• The Housing Minister confirmed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on 31 July that the Government’s New Towns programme is not expected to deliver any completed homes this Parliament.


HFI Housing Delivery Newsletter - August 2024

The Bank of England’s rate cut was a ray of light, but the housing pipeline remains a cause for concern. At the Housing & Finance Institute, we look at the latest news and developments in housing since the election, including in the Housing Spotlight and Delivery Snapshot.

Rate Cut Boost

Amid a challenging year for housebuilding and mortgages, there was a ray of light on 1 August, with the Bank of England announcing a long-awaited interest rate cut to 5%. The close 5-4 vote of the Monetary Policy Committee came with a cautionary message that the Bank was not going to cut “too quickly or by too much”.

Ahead of the rate rise, the mortgage lender Nationwide released its latest UK house price index report, with an annual growth in house prices of 2.1% in July, its fastest pace since December 2022.

The latest Bank of England announcements will provide a little relief for some current mortgage holders and those needing to refinance. However, many first-time buyers are facing a continuing double challenge of finding money for a deposit while meeting stringent affordability criteria. So while generally mortgage market confidence may begin to rise off the back of the Bank of England interest rate cut, access to home ownership remains difficult for many, given the affordability and home deposit challenges.

Housing Pipeline Concern

However, housing pipeline figures remain a cause for concern with the latest NHBC housing pipeline figures showing the scale of the current housebuilding slump. Latest MHCLG data reported a significant fall in residential Planning Permissions, another key housing pipeline indicator.

Housing Policy Interventions

Following the General Election, the new Government has confirmed its 1.5 million new homes target for this Parliament. Immediate action has been taken by the Housing Secretary to impose compulsory housebuilding targets on councils, with a warning of direct intervention if housing targets are not met. However, the Government’s New Towns programmes is now not expected to deliver any completed homes this Parliament, the Housing Minister told Radio 4’s Today programme. This raises questions as to how the 1.5 million new homes target will be delivered, without these major new developments coming forward at pace.

Further Government intervention on the demand side to support new buyers and home deposit savers is likely to be necessary over the next period to reverse the current housebuilding slump, together with far-reaching interventions for skills and building materials to meet a housing target that hasn’t been met since mankind first landed on the moon over 50 years ago. The HFI’s purpose is to support increased housing supply, back councils and businesses working together to build more homes and promote new ways to finance housebuilding.

Do get in touch if you would like to share ideas and suggestions on building the homes our country needs.

Best regards

Natalie Elphicke Ross
Head of Housing Delivery

natalie@hfi.org.uk


December 2024